Will your retirement savings last?
Adjust the inputs below and see a live year-by-year forecast across three market scenarios — including Social Security and inflation.
Read the guide: How long will my money last in retirement? →
Your plan
Age 62–70
Deterministic expected scenario
Your money lasts until age 111
Your plan holds in good markets. In the expected scenario your savings last to age 111. Trimming withdrawals would improve resilience.
Stress test — the above assumes exactly 5% every year. Adding realistic year-to-year randomness (±12% volatility) across 1,000 simulations: 66.6% of simulated paths reached age 95 before running out; median simulated depletion age: 102.
Conservative
(3% return)
Depletes at age 95
Expected
(5% return)
Depletes at age 111
Optimistic
(7% return)
Lasts beyond age 120
| Scenario | Return rate | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3% | Depletes at age 95 |
| Expected | 5% | Depletes at age 111 |
| Optimistic | 7% | Lasts beyond age 120 |
Conservative = expected − 2 pp · Optimistic = expected + 2 pp · Optimistic line may be clipped for readability
Estimates only. These projections assume steady average returns and don't account for market crashes, taxes, healthcare costs, or changes in spending. Real results vary. This is not financial advice.
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For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Projections are hypothetical and not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How long will my money last in retirement?
- It depends on three things: how much you’ve saved, how much you withdraw each year, and what the market returns — especially in your first decade of retirement. As a rough guide, a portfolio earning more than you withdraw can last indefinitely, while withdrawing 6–7% or more a year often depletes savings in under 20 years. Use the calculator above to estimate your own timeline across conservative, expected, and optimistic scenarios.
- How long will $500,000 last in retirement?
- It depends mainly on your annual spending and returns. At a 5% return with $2,000/month in withdrawals (adjusted for inflation), $500,000 can last roughly 25–30 years, but higher spending shortens that significantly. Because inflation and market timing change the answer, the calculator above shows a realistic range rather than a single number.
- How long will $1 million last in retirement?
- A $1 million portfolio earning a 5% return while you withdraw around $3,000–$4,000 a month can often last 30 years or more, sometimes beyond age 100. But withdrawing $6,000+ a month, or a poor sequence of early market returns, can deplete it much faster. Enter your own figures above to see how long $1 million lasts in your situation.
- What is the 4% rule?
- The 4% rule suggests that if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in your first year of retirement and adjust that amount for inflation each year, your savings are likely to last about 30 years. It’s a useful starting point, not a guarantee — it assumes a specific portfolio mix and a roughly 30-year retirement, and it doesn’t account for the order in which market returns occur.
- Does this calculator account for inflation?
- Yes. The calculator increases your withdrawals each year by your chosen inflation rate, because spending that feels comfortable today will cost more in 20 years. This is why its estimates are often more realistic — and shorter — than simple calculators that assume your spending stays flat.
- Does it include Social Security?
- Yes, optionally. You can enter your expected monthly Social Security income and the age you plan to start claiming, and the calculator reduces the amount drawn from your savings once that income begins. Social Security is designed to replace only about 40% of a typical worker’s pre-retirement income, so it usually supplements rather than replaces your savings.
- How accurate is this retirement calculator?
- It gives a well-reasoned estimate, not a guarantee. To reflect real-world uncertainty, it runs 1,000 simulations with random year-to-year market swings (a Monte Carlo stress test) and reports the probability your money lasts to a target age. It does not account for taxes, healthcare costs, or changes in spending, so treat the results as a starting point and confirm important decisions with a licensed financial professional.